PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
* * *
Best Picture
Frontrunners
American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
Oppenheimer (Universal)
Barbie (Warner Bros.)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
Poor Things (Searchlight)
Past Lives (A24)
Maestro (Netflix)
The Holdovers (Focus)
The Zone of Interest (A24)
All of Us Strangers (Searchlight)
Major Threats
Nyad (Netflix)
Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
Origin (Neon)
Rustin (Netflix)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Air (Amazon/MGM)
May December (Netflix)
Possibilities
Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
Priscilla (A24)
Ferrari (Neon)
The Taste of Things (IFC)
Dream Scenario (A24)
Dumb Money (Sony)
American Symphony (Netflix)
The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
Can’t Yet Call
The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
The Iron Claw (A24)
Napoleon (Apple/Sony)
Best Director
Frontrunners
Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)
Major Threats
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
Celine Song (Past Lives)
Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers)
Ava DuVernay (Origin)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Possibilities
Jimmy Chin and Chai Vasarhelyi (Nyad)
Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast
Michael Mann (Ferrari)
Emerald Fennell (Saltburn)
Sofia Coppola (Priscilla)
Ben Affleck (Air) — podcast
Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers and Justin K. Thompson (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse)
Can’t Yet Call
Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple)
Sean Durkin (The Iron Claw)
Ridley Scott (Napoleon)
Best Actor
Frontrunners
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Major Threats
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) — podcast
Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
Christian Friedel (The Zone of Interest)
Adam Driver (Ferrari)
Matt Damon (Air)
Possibilities
Alden Ehrenreich (Fair Play)
Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
Kôji Yakusho (Perfect Days)
Benoît Magimel (The Taste of Things)
Gael García Bernal (Cassandro)
Paul Dano (Dumb Money)
Taron Egerton (Tetris) — podcast
Can’t Yet Call
Zac Efron (The Iron Claw)
Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon)
Best Actress
Frontrunners
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast
Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast
Major Threats
Natalie Portman (May December) — podcast
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Greta Lee (Past Lives)
Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) — podcast
Possibilities
Helen Mirren (Golda) — podcast
Eve Hewson (Flora and Son)
Leonie Benesch (The Teacher’s Lounge)
Phoebe Dynevor (Fair Play)
Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders) — podcast
Can’t Yet Call
Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)
Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunners
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast
Charles Melton (May December)
Major Threats
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) — podcast
John Magaro (Past Lives)
Matt Damon (Oppenheimer)
Chris Messina (Air)
Possibilities
Jacob Elordi (Priscilla)
Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
Jon Bernthal (Origin)
Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
Eddie Marsan (Fair Play)
Can’t Yet Call
Colman Domingo (The Color Purple)
Corey Hawkins (The Color Purple) — podcast
Tahar Rahim (Napoleon)
Jeremy Allen White (The Iron Claw)
Best Supporting Actress
Frontrunners
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
Julianne Moore (May December)
Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)
Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast
Major Threats
Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
Leslie Uggams (American Fiction)
Erika Alexander (American Fiction)
Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things)
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Viola Davis (Air)
Possibilities
Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcast
Issa Rae (American Fiction) — podcast
Tracee Ellis Ross (American Fiction) — podcast
America Ferrera (Barbie)
Patricia Clarkson (Monica) — podcast
Niecy Nash-Betts (Origin)
Julianne Nicholson (Dream Scenario)
Can’t Yet Call
Halle Bailey (The Color Purple)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
H.E.R. (The Color Purple) — podcast
Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) — podcast
Lily James (The Iron Claw) — podcast
Vanessa Kirby (Napoleon)
Maura Tierney (The Iron Claw)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunners
American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
Major Threats
All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)
Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)
Origin (Ava DuVernay)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord and Chris Miller)
Possibilities
Nyad (Julia Cox)
Dumb Money (Rebecca Angelo and Lauren Schuker Blum)
Ferrari (Michael Mann, Troy Kennedy Martin and Brock Yates)
The Bikeriders (Jeff Nichols)
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)
Can’t Yet Call
The Color Purple (Marcus Gardley)
Best Original Screenplay
Frontrunners
Barbie (Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
Past Lives (Celine Song)
The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari and Justine Triet)
The Teacher’s Lounge (İlker Catak and Johannes Duncker)
Major Threats
Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
Maestro (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer)
Fair Play (Chloe Domont)
Air (Alex Convery)
Dream Scenario (Kristoffer Borgli)
Possibilities
May December (Sam Burch and Alex Mechanik)
Rustin (Dustin Lance Black and Julian Breece)
Cassandro (David Teague and Roger Ross Williams) — podcast (Williams)
Flora and Son (John Carney)
Can’t Yet Call
The Iron Claw (Sean Durkin)
Napoleon (David Scarpa)
Best International Feature
Frontrunners
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
The Taste of Things (France)
The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
Perfect Days (Japan)
20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
Can’t Yet Call
Io Capitano (Italy)
Godland (Iceland)
Shayda (Australia)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
Blaga’s Lessons (Bulgaria)
Four Daughters (Tunisia)
About Dry Grasses (Turkey)
Thunder (Switzerland)
The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
Best Documentary Feature
Frontrunners
American Symphony (Netflix)
Kokomo City (Magnolia)
Beyond Utopia (Roadside)
20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)
The Deepest Breath (Netflix)
Major Threats
The Eternal Memory (MTV)
The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)
The Mission (Nat Geo)
Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
Still (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)
The Disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC)
Possibilities
Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
Anselm (Sideshow/Janus)
Every Body (Focus)
King Coal (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The League (Magnolia)
Joan Baez: I Am a Noise (Magnolia)
To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Can’t Yet Call
32 Sounds (Abramorama)
Black Ice (Lionsgate)
A Compassionate Spy (Magnolia)
Copa 71 (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Defiant (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Four Daughters (Kino Lorber)
Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Story (HBO)
Hollywoodgate (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Judy Blume Forever (Amazon)
Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC)
Little Richard: I Am Everything (Magnolia)
Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)
The Mother of All Lies (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Orlando, My Political Biography (Sideshow/Janus)
Periodical (MSNBC)
Uncharitable (Abramorama)
What the Hell Happened to Blood, Sweat & Tears? (Abramorama)
While We Watched (PBS)
Your Fat Friend (still seeking distribution)
Best Animated Feature
Frontrunners
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Classics)
Nimona (Netflix)
Major Threats
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)
Can’t Yet Call
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)
Leo (Netflix)
Migration (Illumination)
Robot Dreams (Neon)
Stopmotion (IFC)
Suzume (Toho)
Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)
Wish (Disney)
