In 2022, when covering the American Film Institute’s selections for the top 10 movies of the year, I noted that the organization has emerged quietly as one of the strongest forces when it comes to predicting the Oscars’ best picture race—at least for American movies. (International films are not eligible, but occasionally win a “special award” from the group.) That development proved more true than ever when the actual Oscar nominations were announced: the AFI had flagged every American film that went onto that equivalent Academy Award nod, foreshadowing the flatlining of titles including Babylon and Glass Onion.
So what does that say about this year’s list, announced on Thursday? The likes of Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest can breathe easy knowing they weren’t eligible anyway, while the inclusion of several bigger-budget front-runners similarly shouldn’t make much news. Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Barbie, Poor Things, and Maestro remain on a clear, positive path to Academy recognition. (None of those titles were eligible contend for the Indie Spirits, whose nominees were revealed earlier this week.) Among the biggest snubs of the day is The Color Purple, which remains embargoed for reviews but has met positive reactions thus far in industry screenings. This news hardly ends its campaign for a best-picture nomination, but offers some warning signs as to just how far that movie may go. Other American films that missed out, including Air and Origin, feel like longer shots by the day.
Following their Spirit Award nominations for best feature, more great news came for the indie underdogs of the season: American Fiction, May December, and Past Lives. At this stage, these films should not be underestimated when it comes to the Academy as they continue to rack up support with a wide range of voting bodies. (Same goes for a slightly more mainstream indie, The Holdovers.) AFI rounded out its top 10 with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, a great boon to that top animated film contender—though of this list, it’s seemingly the least likely to translate the honor into a best-picture Oscar nod. Last year’s AFI recognition of studio films The Woman King, She Said, and Nope went nowhere, as the Academy chose instead to recognize international titles All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Triangle of Sadness.
Over on the television side, AFI did not name any new shows from the back half of the year. Instead, the group leaned heavily on early-2023 premieres that are also up for a bunch of Emmys, including Beef, The Last of Us, and Jury Duty. The group also recognized heavyweights like The Bear and Succession, in addition to acclaimed series that the Television Academy has overlooked, such as Reservation Dogs. And if you’ve sensed an unusual amount of buzz circling The Morning Show‘s third season, note that the AppleTV+ series has been recognized by AFI for the first time. Will an Emmy breakout follow?
Why is AFI, whose juries include a mix of filmmakers, critics, and academics, suddenly so notable when it comes to mirroring the Film Academy’s choices? We can look to a few trendlines—the expansion of the international component of the Academy, for instance, means its U.S. picks are getting more discerning—but this also may be a simple matter of taste. One that, when it comes to tracking awards season, is very much worth paying attention to. We’ll see if their perfect Oscars record continues in this highly competitive year.
See the full list of AFI winners for film and TV below.
AFI MOTION PICTURES OF THE YEAR
- American Fiction
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- May December
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
