Representative Jamaal Bowman’s upset win in a 2020 Democratic primary in the New York suburbs was heralded by the left as proof of its electoral ascent in American politics.
Four years later, Mr. Bowman’s decisive loss on Tuesday will soon brand him with a more ignominious distinction: the first member of the House’s left-leaning “Squad” to be ousted from office.
The congressman was weighed down by a unique collection of baggage, including a guilty plea to a misdemeanor for pulling a House fire alarm last year. And he faced record-shattering spending by political groups furious over his criticism of Israel.
But his defeat in one of the nation’s most closely watched primaries drove home an unmistakable reality: Even at a moment when the war in Gaza has re-energized progressive activism, many of the left’s candidates are no longer gaining ground in major races, and in some cases they have started losing it.
In party primaries and special elections from Oregon to New Jersey, moderates seemed to be regaining their footing, often by explicitly positioning themselves to the right of their Democratic opponents on immigration, foreign policy and public safety. President Biden has also tacked rightward on key issues like immigration.
And in Missouri, another member of the “Squad,” Representative Cori Bush, is in danger of losing an August primary, where many of the same forces that helped defeat Mr. Bowman are already at play.
“The voters in this district, and in other districts across the country, frankly, are just not buying some of the things that these candidates are selling,” said Jay Jacobs, New York’s Democratic Party chair, who has often been at war with his party’s left wing. “And now, moderate voters are getting engaged, they’re paying attention and they’re coming to the polls.”
The outcome left progressives on the defensive on Wednesday, with longtime allies at odds over who was to blame and how — if at all — their movement needed to change its message and confrontational style to meet a different moment in American politics.
Other Democratic moderates in New York also were victorious on Tuesday, including John Avlon — whose political background included a stint as a speechwriter and adviser to Rudolph W. Giuliani — who won a House primary in eastern Long Island. But Mr. Bowman’s loss to the Westchester County executive, George Latimer, was particularly telling.
Mr. Bowman made little effort to expand his base of support and put the war in Gaza at the center of his campaign, betting that he could win by energizing a similar coalition of Black and brown voters, young people and committed progressives.
National progressives had made the race a crucial electoral priority. Groups like Justice Democrats and the Sunrise Movement, once the insurgents at the gate, drained bank accounts and dispatched armies of volunteers. Some of the left’s biggest names, including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, took unusually large roles trying to prop Mr. Bowman up.
In the end, the left could not compete with the other side’s vast resources, including a torrent of unprecedented spending by a super PAC tied to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. The group attacked the two-term congressman over his criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza but also the vote he and other members of the “Squad” took against Mr. Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure plan.
Speaking to reporters outside the Capitol in Washington on Wednesday, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez avoided blaming Mr. Bowman or party leaders for the loss, saying her top priority was figuring out how to combat the proliferation of super PAC spending.
“This is not about leadership,” she said. “What it should be is all of us trying to actually have a conversation about the role of AIPAC, but also the role of large money and dark money in Democratic primaries, especially when they are funded by Republicans.”
That said, there were also signs that Mr. Bowman had also lost the support of a swath of suburban liberal voters who once eagerly embraced him as a young Black political newcomer and committed democratic socialist.
“When Bowman won in 2020, he did it with the Sanders coalition, the Warren coalition and communities of color,” said Rebecca Katz, who advised his earlier campaigns. “This time, though he may have gotten Warren’s endorsement, it looks like he lost many of her base voters: white, educated liberals.”
The race was a role reversal from 2020, when Mr. Bowman unseated an established incumbent, Eliot L. Engel. This time around, Mr. Latimer was the challenger, yet seemed to assume the role of the more seasoned politician. He benefited from name recognition and deep ties to the 16th Congressional District, largely made up of Westchester County suburbs.
Alyssa Cass, a political consultant who worked on Mr. Bowman’s winning campaign against Mr. Engel, said the congressman appeared to have forgotten what got him and other progressives elected in the first place.
Back then, Mr. Bowman had passionately argued that Mr. Engel, a Washington habitué who was the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, did not understand “our community” and was an absentee representative.
“Bowman beat a 30-year incumbent by arguing that that incumbent was too focused on foreign policy and not on the needs of the district,” Ms. Cass said. “Fast forward to 2024: For voters, you can see how they might feel that ‘He’s fighting for me’ has been transformed into ‘He’s fighting for something else.’”
Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, argued that progressive economic positions on taxing the wealthy or fighting corporations remained popular. Mr. Bowman did not.
“Sadly, he opened up a unique set of Achilles’ heels that made him easy pickings for right-wing billionaires to single him out and basically buy a Democratic primary,” he said.
Mr. Bowman had trouble moving past his clumsy and sometimes inflammatory comments about Oct. 7, including casting doubt that Hamas committed sexual violence, a position he later disavowed. And, of course, the fire alarm.
But Mr. Bowman’s closest allies forcefully pushed back, saying the problem was not their candidate’s messaging but how it was drowned out by a huge influx of spending.Roughly a dozen groups sent a letter on Wednesday demanding that Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the House Democratic leader, take a more confrontational approach toward AIPAC.
Mr. Jeffries, who has a policy of backing incumbents, endorsed Mr. Bowman and recorded a robocall, even though his own views on Israel and other issues are more moderate. But he did not campaign in the district.
“The outcome of this election is a reflection on his leadership and whether Hakeem Jeffries stood up to Republican megadonors,” said Usamah Andrabi, a spokesman for Justice Democrats.
Mr. Jeffries was having none of it. His spokeswoman, Christie Stephenson, said the leader would be judged on whether Democrats take control of the House this fall, mocking the Justice Democrats for saying they wanted to “destroy the Democratic Party” and primary Mr. Jeffries.
“They have failed miserably in every way,” Ms. Stephenson said. “Is anyone surprised?”
Whether the primary success for moderates like Mr. Latimer can be replicated in races against other progressive stars is unclear. Ms. Bush, of Missouri, who also defeated an establishment incumbent, William Lacy Clay Jr., in a primary in 2020, faces a stiff challenge from Wesley Bell, the prosecuting attorney in St. Louis County, who has been endorsed by AIPAC.
In late January, Ms. Bush and another “Squad” member — Representative Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, the House’s only Palestinian American, were the sole “no” votes on a resolution to bar Hamas members and others involved in the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel from coming to the United States.
Nor was it clear whether Mr. Latimer’s win would have broader implications for November. On Wednesday, Joseph Crowley, a former congressman whose 2018 loss to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez helped launch the “Squad,” suggested it could benefit Mr. Biden, noting that the “pendulum swing has come back a bit.”
“There may be an opportunity for the president to be more relaxed in his own skin in the party, to be able to move to focus more toward the middle,” he said.
Josh Gottheimer, a New Jersey Democrat who has sometimes staked out more conservative positions, seemed to agree, saying the results on Tuesday meant that “the Squad politics are on the way out, not the way in.”
“There’s a swing from extremism,” he said, “to a more common-sense Democratic lane.”
Catie Edmondson contributed reporting from Washington, D.C.
