When the SAG-AFTRA strike hit 100 days on October 21, much of Hollywood met the milestone with weariness. Though actors are scheduled to resume negotiations with the major studios and streamers on Tuesday, people are starting to worry that even if the two sides reach a deal soon, the industry won’t return to business as usual until January. “This year is over,” says a film and television producer. “The first quarter will be when the machine kicks back up.”
The longer the strike lasts, the further it prolongs the devastation in Hollywood. The production shutdown, which began when writers went on strike in May, has cost the California economy an estimated $5 billion. Already, summer has turned to fall without the typical slew of scripted-TV-show premieres; some Oscar contenders have pushed their premiere dates to next year; and only a handful of independent projects have been allowed to continue filming. In an op-ed over the weekend, guild president Fran Drescher pointed to what she sees as a puzzling lack of urgency on the studios’ part: “Over the course of our recent round of bargaining, we were baffled by the AMPTP’s strategy of non-negotiation, even as orders for scripts and preproduction crew holds have begun to ramp up with the WGA strike now settled. What could they be thinking?”
Indeed, Hollywood is desperate to get back to work. But by November, production starts to wind down for the year as executives daydream about the ski trips they have planned during the time that the industry shuts down around Christmas and New Year’s. It’s more expensive for studios to film and pay crew members during the holidays, and a scheduling nightmare to work around talent travel plans and winter weather. “It’s possible we could start shooting if the strike ends this week or next week,” says another producer, who has a show ready to resume production the minute the actors strike a deal. But he’s not optimistic that’ll happen. “I feel like they’re enjoying the strike more than the actual negotiation and closing of the deal. It makes me very nervous.”
Even more sanguine insiders acknowledge that little can be done to salvage the rest of the year. But there’s still an opportunity to control the damage. “The way to save the year is by getting the strike resolved before year’s end, because that’ll protect next year to some extent,” a top talent agent says, conceding that “it’s a low bar.”
After the Writers Guild of America reached an agreement on a new contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers in September, Hollywood collectively let out the breath it had been holding since May. Scribes could start work on those scripts they’d put down 148 days earlier; executives could email over their notes; agents could begin negotiating new deals for their writer clients.
Many assumed that SAG-AFTRA, which represents about 160,000 actors and performers, would soon follow with a deal of its own. As hopes swelled, picket lines thinned. “I think that the actors were really excited for [the strike] to end because it finally ended for the writers,” says an actor on an award-winning streaming series. “I’m not saying actors aren’t committed to the cause and [don’t] feel really strongly, because there’s certainly a very strong resolve. But [the pickets] are not packed like they were.”
The actors and entertainment companies restarted talks on October 2. Negotiations lasted a little more than a week before they broke down on October 11, with the AMPTP issuing a statement that “conversations are no longer moving us in a productive direction.” The next day, Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos—who was among the executives in the room for negotiations with the actors—told a crowd of Hollywood professionals at the Bloomberg Screentime conference that SAG-AFTRA had proposed that the streamers pay out a set rate per each subscriber; the companies, he said, deemed it “a bridge too far.” Though SAG-AFTRA leaders have disputed the AMPTP’s characterization of their proposal, it’s clear that the groups remain far apart on a number of important issues as they return to the negotiating table.
