Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has formally requested a trade from the San Francisco 49ers. The two sides have not been able to hash out a long-term contract extension — at least not yet — over this offseason. A soft deadline looms next week when veterans are slated to report to training camp, and Aiyuk would be subject to daily fines of $40,000 if he’s not in the building.
Where does this situation go from here? This is familiar ground for the 49ers, who have dealt with uncomfortable contract standoffs in each of the past two seasons. One was with receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. — who also requested a trade, but much earlier in the offseason — and the other was with defensive end Nick Bosa.
The 49ers have three general options. Here is an outline of each strategy.
Option 1: Do nothing and wait for Aiyuk to blink
Aiyuk is already under contract for the 2024 season at $14.1 million. Considering Aiyuk was one of the most efficient receivers in football last season — he led the NFL with 17.9 yards per reception — that’s a very favorable rate for the 49ers in a market where the top wideouts are now making over $30 million annually.
Aiyuk’s exact demands aren’t publicly known, although it has been reported the 49ers’ offer hovers at around $26 million per year. The team can stand pat and wait for Aiyuk to lower his asking price. Think of this as a game of chicken — with the 49ers driving a semitruck. Because Aiyuk is already under contract, they have the high ground here.
Although the league’s collective bargaining agreement (CBA) allows the team to forgive Aiyuk’s $40,000 daily fines for missing training camp, financial penalties would only increase with time. On his $14.1 million deal, Aiyuk stands to miss out on about $829,000 per game if a holdout lasts into the regular season. The CBA would also allow the 49ers to fine Aiyuk up to that amount for every missed preseason game.
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Beyond these short-term losses, Aiyuk faces potential longer-term financial damage with a prolonged holdout. Remember that 2024 for Aiyuk is a contract year for as long as he remains on his rookie deal. Given the situation, the receiver is more incentivized than ever to deliver statistically so that he’s best lined up for a payday when unrestricted free agency might come calling in 2025. That means Aiyuk is incentivized to be at training camp so he can hone rapport with 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, especially because the team features so much other receiving talent who will be competing for targets.
Contractually, the Aiyuk dynamic is set up to work in the 49ers’ favor. General manager John Lynch, knowing this, has stated the 49ers would be willing to let Aiyuk play 2024 on the fifth-year option. The 49ers can also use the franchise tag on Aiyuk for 2025 at a projected price of about $22 million.
It’s way too early to know if the 49ers would resort to that, but the mere threat of two more seasons of team control at a below-market rate does theoretically incentivize Aiyuk to take the 49ers’ offer or at least come closer to it.
Seeing the negotiating field tilted in their favor, the 49ers might disregard Aiyuk’s trade request and continue waiting for him to blink at the negotiating table. In fact, with the 49ers reportedly telling interested teams that they have no intention of trading Aiyuk, it appears that’s exactly what they’re doing.
John Lynch, right, wants Brandon Aiyuk back with the 49ers. But at what cost? (Brian Rothmuller / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Option 2: Sweeten the pot to avoid a holdout
Of course, the 49ers also have something to lose if this situation drags out.
Aiyuk is an excellent receiver and the team is objectively worse without him. Even if the distribution of leverage suggests the 49ers should win a prolonged staredown with Aiyuk, that can come at a significant cost to the team. Look back to last season, when Bosa acknowledged that missing all of training camp and the preseason negatively impacted his play for at least the first part of the regular season.
A team facing intense pressure to win a Super Bowl would prefer to not lose any bit of its edge. And the 49ers find themselves in that type of win-now boat. There certainly is some value in ensuring that Aiyuk is in the building from the start of training camp next week. The question is just how much Aiyuk’s presence would be worth.
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That’s hard to calculate, but perhaps the 49ers would be willing to slightly sweeten their offer to push this negotiation across the finish line. Maybe this trade request is Aiyuk’s way of rocking the boat to see if the 49ers are, in fact, willing to do that.
But it could also be that the two sides are too far apart for any pot sweeteners to do the trick, and if that’s the case, this isn’t a particularly useful option for the 49ers. It doesn’t seem that avoiding an Aiyuk holdout would be worth compromising their big-picture salary cap, which must consider a potential megadeal for Purdy and other big expenditures in the future.
The 49ers, because their books are already jammed with more A-list talent than any other NFL team, are very incentivized to hold the line where it is.
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Option 3: Trade Aiyuk
What potential trade involving Aiyuk can the 49ers make that would improve their team this season? That’s the gold standard for the 49ers, who — given the Super Bowl pressure — are in no position to jettison a valuable weapon for assets that cannot help them this season.
With the NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, it stands to reason that only a trade bringing another player could satisfy the 49ers’ goal of improving the team now. For argument’s sake: If the Los Angeles Chargers offered defensive end Joey Bosa to the 49ers, or if another team was willing to trade them a quality offensive lineman, Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan would be obligated to listen. Such moves would theoretically give the 49ers a chance to improve enough at one position to outweigh the loss of Aiyuk at receiver.
But such player-for-player trades are rare in the NFL, thanks in large part to how difficult it is to align contractual situations under the cap. Joey Bosa, for example, just received a lucrative signing bonus as part of a contract restructure. The Chargers probably wouldn’t be eager to ship the pass rusher away right after paying him such a large sum of money.
And despite the stalemate, let’s not forget how good Aiyuk has been for the 49ers.
His graded efficiency was off the charts last season. His ability to block is exemplary. His arc of improvement into stardom has been a quintessential success story of the 49ers’ developmental program. That all makes Aiyuk the exact type of player the 49ers want to keep around, one who won’t be moved unless the 49ers command a haul that makes it worth their time.
It’s very hard to see such a trade package coming to fruition, which is why Option 1 continues to be the team’s most likely course of action in this saga with Aiyuk. His request for Option 3 does not change that.
(Top photo: Perry Knotts / Getty Images)
