Colombia vs. Uruguay Pick: Best Bets for Copa America Semifinal

Two of the trendiest darkhorses entering the 2024 Copa America — Colombia and Uruguay — meet on Wednesday night for a chance to take on Argentina in Sunday’s Copa America final.

Uruguay, which went 4-1-1 in CONMEBOL qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup last fall, and Colombia — also solid in qualifying at 3-3-0 — have both justified their high expectations in this tournament.

The Uruguayans cruised through Group C, winning three matches by a combined score of 9-1. Colombia also impressed in a tougher Group D, outscoring Paraguay and Costa Rica 5-1 before drawing Brazil in their final match of group play.

While Uruguay needed PKs after a 0-0 stalemate in the quarterfinals to advance at Brazil’s expense, Colombia drilled Panama 5-0 last Saturday night.

Uruguay are the favorites in Wednesday night’s match, with the moneyline odds shifting in favor of Darwin Nunez and Co. ahead of kickoff. Colombia enter the Copa America semifinals on a remarkable streak of 27 consecutive matches without a loss (21 wins, six draws).

The last time these teams met, they played to a 2-2 draw in Barranquilla, Colombia on October 12, 2023, as a 91st-minute penalty by Nunez allowed Uruguay to escape with a point.

Keep in mind that Copa America quarterfinal and semifinal matches do not feature extra time. That means that if Colombia and Uruguay are level after 90 minutes, plus stoppage time, they’ll head straight to penalty kicks, which decided three of this competition’s four quarterfinal matches.

Colombia vs. Uruguay gets underway from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, at 8 p.m. ET on FS1.

Colombia vs. Uruguay Moneyline Odds

The three-way moneyline odds below apply to the result after 90 minutes, plus stoppage time.

In single-elimination matches like Colombia vs. Uruguay, anyone interested in simply picking the winner can check out the odds to advance market.

Colombia vs. Uruguay Odds To Advance

Colombia vs. Uruguay Betting Analysis

It’s hard to blame anyone for expecting yet another Copa America match to be decided by penalty kicks. Uruguay were one of three teams (the other two being Argentina and Canada) who reached this stage via PKs.

At full strength, Colombia-Uruguay would seem like a toss-up, especially given Colombia’s outstanding play not only in this tournament, but dating all the way back to Manager Nestor Lorenzo’s hire back in June 22. (In fact, Colombia have a chance on Wednesday night to extend a 27-game unbeaten streak that actually began before Lorenzo was named head coach).

But Uruguay are not at 100%, as neither starting right back Nahitan Nandez (suspension) nor Barcelona center back Ronald Araujo (injury) will be available against Los Cafeteros.

Uruguay have the luxury of a proven veteran in Atletico Madrid’s Jose Maria Gimenez stepping in for Araujo. But the likely replacement for Nandez, 31-year-old Guillermo Varela of Brazilian club Flamengo, has played only 43 minutes at the Copa America.

James Rodriguez Leads Red-Hot Colombia

One of the breakout stars of the 2014 World Cup has enjoyed a massive resurgence the last few weeks. Colombia’s captain has been dominant, with five assists and a goal, and he’s now two wins away from cementing his place as one of the top Colombian players of all time.

Rodriguez’s passing has been one of the highlights of this tournament, and with a big game against Uruguay, he’d enter the final against Argentina as one of the biggest stories in a match featuring Lionel Messi and the reigning champs.

Don’t be surprised if this physical Uruguay side tries to bully Rodriguez, but the 32-year-old former Real Madrid and Bayern Munich star will have a great chance to make Uruguay pay on set pieces if that happens.

Colombia vs. Uruguay Prediction, Best Bets

In addition to how well Colombia have played throughout their lengthy unbeaten streak, the way these teams’ quarterfinal matches played out is another reason to like the underdogs, especially at odds as tempting as +220.

While Los Cafeteros enjoyed a breezy 5-0 win over Panama, Uruguay had to survive a bloodbath against Brazil. In addition to the red card that has sidelined Nandez for Wednesday’s semifinal, Uruguay-Brazil featured four other yellow cards and an incredible 41 (!) fouls (26 by Uruguay, 15 by Brazil).

So it would be an understatement to call Colombia the fresher side on Wednesday night. They also figure to enjoy at least a slight “homefield” advantage in Charlotte, as Colombia’s supporters have packed stadiums across the country for their matches in this tournament.

It all adds up to a hard-fought upset for Colombia looking like the most likely outcome. The question is whether to take Rodriguez and Co. on the moneyline or to advance.

Given that Colombia had their 2026 qualifier against Uruguay all but won before a late red card allowed Nunez to equalize with a late penalty, let’s go with the underdogs to pull this one out in 90 minutes.

Prediction: Colombia 2, Uruguay 1

Best bet: Colombia moneyline (+220 at FanDuel, DraftKings, bet365)

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