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The last two years have proved the Los Angeles Lakers cannot match up against the Denver Nuggets. L.A. was also inconsistent throughout the year, with some injury-related (mostly role players) setbacks, some roster make-up problems, coaching mistakes and general misfortune.
LeBron James raises the team’s ceiling to a championship level—provided L.A. never plays Denver, which it is facing a 3-0 deficit against in their first-round playoff series. But the Lakers could become a much better defensive team without James (and D’Angelo Russell). The all-time great can often slow the team’s offensive attack as well.
It’s challenging to envision enough offensive support around Anthony Davis without James, but it’s certainly possible. Would a single free-agent addition and a healthy roster compete in the Western Conference? Probably not in the top tier, but the current Lakers aren’t exactly dominating.
After the Nuggets’ 2023 sweep of the Lakers in the conference finals, James openly contemplated retirement before deciding to continue for another year.
Now, on the verge of another series defeat, what’s next for the franchise if James decides to move on through retirement or free agency?
Cap Room Bonanza
James is technically under contract for 2024-25 at $51.4 million, but he can opt out before July. James can also opt out to re-sign, but the Lakers would face a very different path forward without him, both on the books and the floor.
Getting out of his salary would undoubtedly shift the team’s direction, though how far may depend on Russell and his $18.7 million player option. Today, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said he believes it’s “likely” Russell will turn down his player option for next season to become a free agent.
Without anyone opting in (including Christian Wood, Jaxson Hayes and Cam Reddish), L.A. would have about $32 million in space under a projected $141 million salary cap. That’s also assuming the New Orleans Pelicans take the Lakers’ 2025 first-round pick instead of No. 17 in June (the current expectation in NBA circles).
That leaves a roster with Davis, Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves, Gabe Vincent, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Maxwell Lewis and the team’s two picks (with No. 55 from the L.A. Clippers).
While $32 million is significant spending power, the lowest tier maximum for players with less than seven years of experience would be $35.3 million. The higher max contracts range from $42.3 to $49.4 million. Los Angeles would also gain the room mid-level exception (RMLE at about $8 million).
Unless Vincent and Reaves start in the backcourt, the Lakers would need to replace Russell, likely the best attainable guard in free agency. The next tier includes names like Tyus Jones or De’Anthony Melton, who was hurt for much of 2023-24.
Instead, the Lakers could try to lure a center to play alongside Davis, like Nicolas Claxton, Jonas Valančiūnas or Isaiah Hartenstein. Claxton would be more expensive as L.A. would need to outbid the Brooklyn Nets, who have his rights. The Knicks will probably retain Hartenstein, but the Lakers could try to outspend them.
What about at the wing position? The Indiana Pacers will pay more than the Lakers can to keep Pascal Siakam. DeMar DeRozan is almost 34, and Klay Thompson is 33. Other names include Tobias Harris, Miles Bridges, Malik Monk (the Sacramento Kings can only pay him $17.4 million unless it finds a way to get under the cap), Kelly Oubre Jr. and several other borderline starters or sixth-man types.
Russell could also opt in, dropping the Lakers’ max cap room to $14.3 million. At that point, the team would probably stay over the cap and utilize the $12.9 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception (NTMLE instead of the RMLE). That would drop some of the names above off the list entirely.
The Lakers would have nearly enough at guard and might be able to re-sign Taurean Prince, Max Christie and/or Spencer Dinwiddie. Others like Wood, Hayes and Reddish may also choose to opt in. Using the NTMLE, the team would have a hard cap at the first apron ($178.7 million), but that shouldn’t be prohibitive with James departed.
It’s a difficult situation. If L.A. falls apart, there’s a very realistic scenario where New Orleans nets a high lottery pick in 2025. Given Davis’ history of injury—2023-24 was one of the healthiest of his career—it’s not far-fetched.
Next Step: Trades?
Another possibility is trading Russell if he opts in. The Lakers could send him and others out, perhaps looking for a second star to pair with Davis, like Trae Young or Donovan Mitchell.
The Lakers can trade their 2024 first-rounder after it’s selected and two distant picks (2029 and 2031). However, giving up too much depth and future draft capital could be extremely dangerous. It would take a series of savvy moves to turn the roster into a contender quickly, and Davis is already 31.
If James is out the door, moving Davis would need to be a consideration. Davis still has plenty of value to bring in a considerable haul of talent or assets.
The Bottom Line
At this point, there’s no word on what James will do. The season isn’t over, and the Lakers could make history with four straight wins over Denver. But once the inevitable happens, James may opt in or out to recommit long term.
He could try to force a coaching change contingent on his return (perhaps his new podcast partner, JJ Redick), and the Lakers may try to make moves around the margins or strive for a third star like Young or Mitchell (sacrificing depth and draft picks).
But James’ Game 4 against the Nuggets may be his last one with the Lakers. If so, there’s a path forward, uncertain as it may be.
