Beryl is set to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend after it roars through the Caribbean and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula.
But from this point, Beryl’s exact track becomes uncertain, and it could be the difference between the storm making landfall on the US Gulf Coast or northeastern Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center’s forecast calls for Beryl to restrengthen as it tracks across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. It will then push toward Mexico’s coast and make landfall Sunday night in far northeastern Mexico.
But the NHC’s forecast cone, which represents where the center of a cyclone is likely to stay 60 to 70% of the time, encapsulates much of southern Texas early next week. This means a US landfall is not out of the question for Beryl.
Some current forecast model solutions take Beryl right into Mexico, some shift it into Texas and some point it toward other parts of the US.
It all hinges on an area of high pressure helping to fuel hot conditions in the South. High pressure is like a bumper in a game of atmospheric pinball, pushing storms this way and that. So if the high over the South stays strong, it will push Beryl more due west on a track farther from the US. But if it weakens, Beryl could turn more to the northwest or north and track closer to the US.
Anyone from Mexico’s eastern Gulf Coast to Texas and even Louisiana should keep a close watch on the forecast in the coming days. Even if Beryl makes landfall in northeastern Mexico, wind and rain from the cyclone will likely impact parts of the US’s Gulf Coast.
