NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving game picks

Week 12 is here, and with it comes the annual tradition of Thanksgiving football. This year features three Thanksgiving day games to sample: Packers vs Lions at noon, Commanders at Cowboys in the afternoon, and 49ers at Seahawks in the evening. While a few of these have pretty wide spreads, it’s actually a pretty decent slate of divisional matchups—some of which could turn out closer than expected.

Let’s get right to today’s picks, which I’ll be making on a straight moneyline (aka picking the winner) basis. I’ll still provide the information on the spread and over/under, for those interested. At the bottom, I’ll show the rest of the staff’s picks for the game.

All odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. See the current odds here.

Thanksgiving noon: Green Bay Packers (4-6) at Detroit Lions (8-2)

The pick: Lions (-375)

Spread: Lions -7.5 | Over/Under: 47 | Moneyline: Lions -375, Packers +295

The annual Lions Thanksgiving game actually favors the Lions by a significant margin this year. Wild stuff! Detroit is legitimately one of the top contenders in the NFC, trailing only the Eagles in the standings. Meanwhile, the Packers have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL. While Detroit survived a scare against the Bears last week, I think the take care of business against their rivals.

Thanksgiving afternoon: Washington Commanders (4-7) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

The pick: Cowboys (-700)

Spread: Cowboys -12.5 | Over/Under: 48.5 | Moneyline: Cowboys -700, Commanders +500

In what is actually a pretty close week of games in terms of the spread, the Thanksgiving afternoon game features the largest one of the week as the Cowboys take on the Commanders. Washington just lost to the Tommy DeVito-led Giants, to give you an idea of how things are going there. Dallas has lacked consistency this season, but their highs have been as good as any team in the NFL. Don’t overthink this one, as the Cowboys take care of business at home.

Thanksgiving evening: San Francisco 49ers (7-3) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)

The pick: 49ers (-360)

Spread: 49ers -7.5 | Over/Under: 44 | Moneyline: 49ers -360, Seahawks +285

In what could be a potential playoff preview, the 49ers travel to take on the Seahawks in a critical NFC West matchup for both teams. The 49ers broke out of their slump with a dominant win over the Jaguars, while the Seahawks are fresh off a tough loss to the Rams. It’s clear that the 49ers are the better team here, and if they’ve righted the ship after some mid-season issues, San Francisco should return to the echelons of the NFL’s elite. This is a good test, and I have faith in the 49ers to pass it.

Staff picks

What are your picks and predictions for tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup?