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Skenes vs. Ohtani was baseball magic. Also: More on the Padres’ interest in Garrett Crochet, multiple perfect-game bids and time is running out for Christopher Morel’s defense in Chicago. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal, welcome to The Windup!
Skenes vs. Ohtani was must-see TV
You never know for sure what to expect when a top prospect debuts. Earlier this year, the Orioles’ Jackson Holliday — the game’s No. 1 prospect in just about every preseason ranking published around the baseball world — got his first taste of big-league action, and went 2-for-34 (.059) before finding himself back in Triple A.
On the other side of the spectrum, you have Paul Skenes, who made his fifth big-league start yesterday. Seven pitches into the game, he had thrown six pitches over 100 mph, the only outlier being an 85 mph slider to strike out Mookie Betts. Three pitches after that whiff — all swinging strikes, Shohei Ohtani was victim No. 2.
By the time Skenes’ day was done, he had eight strikeouts and one walk over five innings, bringing his total to 38 Ks and 6 walks in 27 innings. His ERA also bumped up to 3.00 for the season, as he allowed three earned runs, the first two coming on a third-inning revenge ball by Ohtani.
Round two goes to Shohei Ohtani 😳 pic.twitter.com/PeNvdak1ep
— MLB (@MLB) June 5, 2024
That home run came on a 100.1 mph fastball. Per MLB’s Sarah Langs, it was the fastest pitch Ohtani has ever homered off of.
Absolute theater. Oh, and the Pirates (29-32) won 10-6; they go for the sweep today.
Here are three more fun stats from yesterday:
• Once again from Sarah Langs at MLB, Skenes’ strikeout of Ohtani was the first time in the pitch-tracking era (2008-present) that a starting pitcher has logged a strikeout with three pitches, all swinging strikes, all 100 mph or faster.
• Skenes threw 16 pitches at 100 mph or faster yesterday. That’s tied for fifth most in a game this season. In fourth place on that list? Skenes, of course. He threw 17 triple-digit fastballs in his May 11 debut against the Cubs.
• But at 101.3 mph, Skenes’ hardest pitch did not even crack the top nine pitch velocities in yesterday’s game. All nine of those belong to reliever Aroldis Chapman, who peaked at 104 mph, a number he hasn’t hit since 2018. (Odd, since his average fastball velocity this year is 96.8 mph, the lowest of his career.)
Ken’s Notebook: Garrett Crochet’s trade value
Here’s some additional perspective on the story The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and I wrote earlier this week about the Padres’ interest in White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet (pronounced Crow-Shay).
Crochet’s 69 2/3 innings this season, his first as a full-time starter, are a career-high. He did not even reach that total during his three years at the University of Tennessee.
So while the White Sox plan to value Crochet as a No. 1 starter, according to sources briefed on their thinking, no acquiring team can assume he will be a viable starter in the second half.
Crochet, 24, underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2022 and spent three months on the injured list with shoulder inflammation last season. At some point, he will reach an innings limit.
The good news is that Crochet is earning only $800,000 in 2024, and will be under club control for two additional seasons. So any team that trades for him could move him to their bullpen for the rest of ’24, then start him again in ’25. The Padres, like most clubs, need help in their bullpen, too.
Either way, Crochet is a coveted weapon, for the present and the future. Thanks to the expanded postseason, the trade market almost certainly will be short on sellers — all but two National League teams entered Wednesday within 3 1/2 games of a postseason berth, and all but three AL clubs were within 6 1/2.
The White Sox, then, might do well in trades for not only Crochet but also righty Erick Fedde, reliever Michael Kopech, outfielder Tommy Pham and center fielder Luis Robert Jr.
It is not certain the White Sox will trade Crochet. The innings concern might prevent their valuation of him from lining up with another club’s. Then again, beggars can’t be choosers. The way pitching has evolved, most teams value quality over quantity. Some contender can go get Crochet, then figure out what to do with him in 2024 and beyond.
When a perfect game bid gets scuttled
Last night saw three perfect game bids in the AL. None came to fruition, but it provided an evening of intrigue for the channel-hoppers among us:
A’s 2, Mariners 1: Joey Estes of the Athletics made it through six perfect innings before J.P. Crawford led off the seventh inning with a double off the wall. By the game’s end, the A’s had just one more hit than the Mariners (5-4), but Daz Cameron scored on a passed ball in the fifth inning, and that insurance run was enough to weather a ninth-inning solo homer by Julio Rodríguez.
Rangers 9, Tigers 1: José Ureña’s perfecto bid against the Detroit Tigers ended one inning earlier than Estes’ — Justyn-Henry Malloy got his first big-league hit, a homer to lead off the sixth inning. Ureña could be out of a rotation spot soon in Texas, with Jon Gray and Max Scherzer hoping to return. Also, Corey Seager, who has been on a huge hot streak, left the game with hamstring tightness and is day-to-day.
Yankees 9, Twins 5: Carlos Rodón’s perfecto bid against the Twins also ended with a sixth-inning home run — this one by Carlos Santana, with one out. Royce Lewis later homered as well, becoming the first Twin to homer in his first three games of the season … even though the team played 58 games between Lewis’ first and second shots. Weird thing I’ve never seen before: Check out Ryan Jeffers’ glove on this Aaron Judge slide:
What will the Cubs do with Christopher Morel?
Last week, we dove into Fielding Run Value, among other fielding metrics. At the time, I ran out of space and only told you about the guy who was leading the league in the stat: Marcus Semien. What I also didn’t include: Cubs third baseman Christopher Morel was ranked last in baseball.
He still is, at minus-8. Meanwhile, FanGraphs’ “Def” stat has him at seventh-worst (minus-6.5) and tied for third-worst in Defensive Runs saved, at minus-8. To clarify, this is among all players at all positions, not just third base.
This isn’t exactly a shock. Before the season even started, Morel’s defense was a big question mark. It’s starting to look like that question is nearing an answer, and it’s not the one Morel or the Cubs hoped for.
As Patrick Mooney writes, manager Craig Counsell has acknowledged that the “figuring it out” time has just about run out, and the Cubs are considering other options at third base.
That’s not to say he’s being moved just yet. Mooney does a good job of laying out the alternatives and frankly, there isn’t a slam-dunk solution right now. But the search for a solution has begun.
It would be easy to look at Morel’s line of .203/.313/.387 (.700 OPS) and assume that’s a contributing factor, but Mooney addresses that as well:
“Counsell completely believes in the expected statistics that portray Morel as an extremely unlucky hitter who’s due for a huge bounce. Morel (…) leads the team in home runs with 11. He’s significantly cut his strikeout percentage while boosting his walk rate. The bat speed, barrel percentage and hard-hit rate all suggest a hitter who can be truly elite.”
Fortunately, we know how to fact-check that now! Morel’s wOBA is .308, but his xwOBA is .378, for a Diff of minus-0.070 — by far the unluckiest on the team (among players with more than 50 plate appearances).
Alas, the glove struggle has no such underlying optimism. And it’s not as simple as “just move him to DH” either — current DH Mike Tauchman has a .762 OPS, which is third-best on the team. Tauchman plays all three outfield positions, but there aren’t any seats at that table either: Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ and Pete Crow-Armstrong are all contributing.
One option that Mooney says isn’t quite ready yet: the team could move first baseman Michael Busch to third base. That would conceivably allow them to move Bellinger back to the infield dirt.
Handshakes and High Fives
Juan Soto is having one of the best years, if not the best year, of his career. Chris Kirschner spoke to him about his childhood obsession with hitting that has never gone away.
Tyler Kepner caught up with Hall of Fame shortstop Ozzie Smith, who spoke on the Cardinals, the state of the game and the responsibility he embraces as a beloved member of St. Louis history.
It’s too early to make a World Series prediction with any confidence. But as we approach the halfway point of the season, things are starting to feel very real for both the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cleveland Guardians.
The Red Sox have placed reliever Chris Martin on the IL as he deals with anxiety, Jen McCaffrey reports.
Jim Bowden takes a first pass at assembling the All-Star rosters.
You can buy tickets to every MLB game here.
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(Top photo: Charles LeClaire / USA Today)