Storms take aim at Houston Wednesday, severe weather possible

Over the past few days, high atmospheric pressure has been keeping Houston skies sunny, temperatures cooler than usual and our air quality a bit elevated. However, on Wednesday, the high pressure will shift eastward, ushering in warmer temperatures, southerly winds and an influx of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Enjoy the nice weather Wednesday while you can because the weather will turn stormy starting at night with the potential for severe storms in Houston and the metro area north of Interstate 10 on Thursday. The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has the region under a slight to enhanced risk for severe weather, or levels 2 to 3 out of 5, on Thursday. A slight risk typically means organized but scattered severe storms with varying levels of intensity, while an enhanced risk often means numerous widespread severe storms, according to the weather service.

A strong storm system will organize, strengthen, and deepen in North Texas and Southern Oklahoma on Wednesday night as a warm front pulls north across the Houston metro area. This will usher in even more moisture and unstable air with higher dew points, an indicator of higher humidity. 

Scattered showers will begin in the evening and then turn into heavier rainfall overnight with a couple of strong thunderstorms. Winds will pick up with gusts near 25 mph. Rain chances will be 30% in the evening and then ramp up to 70% overnight. 

Thunderstorms will continue through Thursday afternoon with rain probability near 100% for Southeast Texas. It is during this time that we could see some severe weather with the possibility of isolated tornadoes, even in the Houston metro area. 

What should you do to prepare?

• Be weather aware.
• Have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.
• Know where your safe place is and have a plan ready for your family.

Locally heavy showers will lead to widespread rainfall totals between an inch and two inches, but isolated higher amounts are possible, especially along and east of the Interstate 45 corridor. 

If the rainfall forecast holds up, the moisture could close the gap between normal November precipitation and actual rainfall so far. If that happens, we could snap what could be a possible six-month streak of below-average monthly rainfall. 

The rain also could make a significant dent in the nearly 9-inch deficit from normal for the year to date. 

Rain and storm coverage will decrease from west to east Thursday afternoon. Gusty south winds will take over for the rest of the day, especially near the coast. The National Weather Service in Houston warns that a wind advisory may be needed Thursday afternoon and evening because of possible gusts of up to 35 mph.

The second part of this storm will be a cold front, expected to swing through late Thursday and early Friday. The front will stall along the coast through the weekend and that will support a 30% chance of rain on Friday and a 20% chance on Saturday. You won’t need to cancel any outdoor plans as these showers will be hit-or-miss during this time. 

Temperatures will be seasonable, with morning lows in the 40s and 50s while highs should be mainly in the 60s.

Have you noticed yourself sneezing more often lately? This time of year, with each passing cold front, we start to see the allergy count tick up across Texas, especially mountain cedar. The season has already started in San Antonio, Austin and the Hill Country with low amounts observed under the microscope a few weeks ahead of schedule. It’s only a matter of time until it makes an appearance in Houston too, especially with the passage of the front this week.