Week 9 gets started as the Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 36.5) host the Tennessee Titans on “Thursday Night Football.”
So what can we expect from a betting standpoint on Thursday?
Betting analysts Tyler Fulghum, Eric Moody, Seth Walder, Anita Marks and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
The Titans are coming off a win over the Falcons, while the Steelers are coming off a loss to the Jaguars. How are you betting this game?
Schatz: That’s a very low total, and the Titans’ defense hasn’t been particularly strong this year. Even the Pittsburgh defense is “only” ninth in DVOA. The Steelers have been a very fast-paced offense as well, although the Titans offense is always slow. I think the spread is fairly accurate but I like the idea of going with OVER 36.5 in this game.
Fulghum: Very nice performance by Will Levis in his NFL debut, but that game was at home. Now he’ll have to travel to a hostile environment in Pittsburgh for his first true road game. I like the Steelers -2.5 to bounce back with a win and cover. The Steelers QB situation is obviously a concern, but the Titans’ pass defense is very beatable. It’s very likely going to be a low-scoring game with Mike Vrabel and Mike Tomlin involved, but I want to bet against Levis to regress to the mean after his outrageous debut performance.
Marks: Steelers (-2.5) and UNDER 36.5. I don’t see the Steelers defense losing at home to a rookie quarterback getting his first road start. Having two weeks to prepare for the Falcons at home is a much different animal than hitting the road to face the Steelers defense. The Steelers are 8-3 ATS their last 11 games, and the Titans are 0-6 SU in their last six road games. Pittsburgh is in a three-way tie for second place in the AFC North — this game matters! Both of these defenses are solid, and their offenses have issues scoring points. Primetime unders are over 70% this season.
Will Levis is expected to make his second NFL start in this game. Did Levis’ impressive debut last week (19-29, 238 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT) change the way you feel about the Titans (3-4) going forward?
Schatz: I’m not sure Levis’ debut was as impressive as it looked at first glance. We knew he had arm strength and of course those deep bombs to DeAndre Hopkins were awesome. However, most of Levis’ value came in just the four touchdown passes. He had only a 29% success rate on pass plays against one of the weaker pass defenses in the league this year (Atlanta). Combine that with a desire not to overstate the importance of a single game and no, I don’t feel much different about the Titans. They seemed like a mediocre team with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and they’re a mediocre team with Levis as well.
Fulghum: No not yet. The Titans themselves have given us a hint at what they believe is their most likely outcome this season when they traded All-Pro safety Kevin Byard to the Eagles. This is a team that is selling and looking to re-tool for the future. Levis is certainly a part of that and these games will provide him some valuable experience in his rookie season, but this team is not a playoff-caliber team in the AFC.
DeAndre Hopkins has a receiving yards prop of 51.5. Given how much of a connection he and Levis had in Week 8, are you drawn to this bet?
Fulghum: I have to admit it’s intriguing. On one hand, Hopkins had 128 yards last week, the Steelers are not a good pass defense and the Titans are road underdogs looking at a potentially pass-heavy game script. On the other hand, Hopkins only saw six targets against Atlanta and that type of efficiency is obviously going to regress. However, I do feel like rookie QBs are more likely to lock on the team’s best pass-catcher in the route progressions than QBs that have more experience. I’m going to stay away from betting this, but I completely understand Titans fans wanting to hammer the OVER here after what they saw last week.
Moody: I am drawn to this bet. Hopkins and Levis had an undeniable rapport against the Falcons, and the veteran receiver has averaged 77.6 receiving yards per game in his career. ESPN’s Titans NFL Nation reporter Turron Davenport offered some intriguing insight in the NFL Nation Fantasy Fallout into whether we can expect more consistent performance from the Titans pass catchers in the near future. “Expect that trend to continue,” he wrote. “Offensive coordinator Tim Kelly has also shown a tendency to call plays with Hopkins as the first option and is willing to move him around the formation to create favorable matchups.” There is a strong chance Hopkins surpasses 51.5 receiving yards in this matchup.
What’s your favorite prop in this game?
Schatz: Diontae Johnson is back now and he’s the main Pittsburgh target on shorter passes. The Titans rank 32nd in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers and 31st on short passes. I think I prefer Johnson’s reception prop to his yardage prop, so let’s go with Diontae Johnson OVER 4.5 receptions.
Fulghum: Najee Harris UNDER 44.5 rush yards. By now, you should be well aware that the Titans are one of the league’s premier pass-funnel defenses in the league, meaning they play excellent run defense, but struggle to defend the pass. Not only is this a tough matchup for Najee Harris, but he likely isn’t even the best RB on his own team. That’s Jaylen Warren. I love taking opposing RB unders against the Titans, especially when that RB is not particularly efficient or good.
Walder: Alex Highsmith OVER 0.5 sacks (+115). Will Levis had a 6% sack rate in his first start last week, but that’s just a single game. More informative, I think, is that he had a very high 11% sack rate at Kentucky last season. This is somewhat of a guess, but I’ve set my sack model to treat Levis as a player with an 8% sack rate in the past. Even with that reasonably conservative estimate, it gives Highsmith a 51.5% chance of hitting the over (after removing pushes). That’s a value against the plus-money here.
Moody: Najee Harris OVER 8.5 receiving yards. Harris has surpassed 8.5 receiving yards in two consecutive games since the Steelers’ bye week. Over the same period of time, he also has eight targets. Harris is likely to be the recipient of a few check downs from Kenny Pickett on Thursday night because of the Titans’ formidable run defense.
Is there anything else you are playing on Thursday?
Walder: Kenny Pickett UNDER 31.5 pass attempts (-102). Playing against a rookie quarterback, the Steelers are much less likely to be playing from behind and can probably adopt a more conservative gameplan that allows their defense to do the heavy lifting (as it usually does). Based on Pittsburgh’s past pass rates and the Steelers being 2.5-point favorites, my model forecasts Pickett to record just 28.4 pass attempts, on average.
Walder: Cole Holcomb UNDER 8.5 tackles + assists (-150). With the Steelers actually favored in this game, it’s less likely they end up in a situation where the opponent has a big lead and are just running the ball over and over. That should results in fewer tackle opportunities for Holcomb, a linebacker. My model projects him for just 6.8 tackles + assists.
