The UFC will close out 2023 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Dec. 16, headlined by a main event bout between Leon Edwards (21-3) of the United Kingdom and Jamaica and Colby Covington (17-3) of the United States.
It opened as a pick’em fight regarding the betting odds, with Edwards (the welterweight champion) moving to a roughly -160 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. As one of the UFC’s most lethal strikers, Edwards, 32, will look to avoid grappling exchanges with Covington in what should be a competitive fight.
Covington, the profane trash-talker and former title challenger, hasn’t fought since early 2022 but was gifted another shot at gold thanks to his infamy. While Covington has no win streak, welterweight Belal Muhammad (23-3), who was nursing a sprained ankle this past summer, is riding a 10-fight unbeaten streak and sits on the sideline.
Another embarrassing Covington fact: He hasn’t defeated an active UFC fighter since 2018, and that win came against a former lightweight in Rafael dos Anjos. Covington is among the most undeserving title challengers in UFC history.
Age favors Edwards, as Covington, 35, is past the typical prime for a UFC fighter.
The co-main event is a flyweight title fight between Brazil’s Alexandre Pantoja (26-5) and American Brandon Royval (15-6), with the former favored at nearly 2/1.
Sensational welterweight Shavkat Rakhmonov (17-0) of Kazakhstan is a huge 7/1 favorite over veteran Stephen Thompson (17-6-1), with Rakhmonov a potential title challenger in 2024. Add Rakhmonov to any parlay you’re considering this month.
Lightweight legend Tony Ferguson (26-9) brings a devastating six-fight losing streak into a brawl with polarizing British up-and-comer Paddy Pimblett, who opened at -250 and was bet to better than a 3/1 favorite. The betting public isn’t giving Ferguson much of a chance.
Pimblett (20-3) is hugely favored despite many fans calling him one of the most overhyped fighters in the UFC.
A defeat for Ferguson, who reportedly has battled emotional issues, could be his last UFC bout and mark the end of a tragic MMA run. A seventh loss in a row would tie the UFC record.
Another welterweight contest had been scheduled to round out the main card, with Irish prospect Ian Garry (13-0) set to face a durable Vincente Luque (22-9-1), who suffered a brain hemorrhage following a brutal knockout in late 2022.
However, the UFC announced late this week that Garry had to withdraw due to illness. The bout was canceled.
Odds from DraftKings and subject to change.
UFC 296 Main Card Odds & Lines
- Welterweight: Leon Edwards (-162) vs. Colby Covington (+136)
- Flyweight: Alexandre Pantoja (-198) vs. Brandon Royval (+164)
- Welterweight: Shavkat Rakhmonov (-700) vs. Stephen Thompson (+500)
- Lightweight: Tony Ferguson (+275) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-345)
- Featherweight: Josh Emmett (+200) vs. Bryce Mitchell (-245)
Prelims
- Light Heavyweight: Alonzo Menifield (+220) vs. Dustin Jacoby (-270)
- Women’s Bantamweight: Irene Aldana (-180) vs. Karol Rosa (+150)
- Bantamweight Cody Garbrandt (-192) vs. Brian Kelleher (+160)
- Women’s Flyweight: Casey O’Neill (-198) vs. Ariane Lipski (+164)
Early Prelims
- Flyweight: Tagir Ulanbekov (-175) vs. Cody Durden (+145)
- Featherweight: Andre Fili (-170) vs. Lucas Almeida (+142)
- Heavyweight: Martin Buday (-125) vs. Shamil Gaziev (+105)
UFC 296 Best Bets, Picks & Predictions
- Leon Edwards by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (-145): It’s very unlikely Edwards submits Covington, so you can get a better price betting Edwards to win by knockout or on the scorecards. We like Edwards in this bout because Covington hasn’t fought since early 2022, with his inactivity raising concerns about so-called ring rust.
- Shavkat Rakhmonov by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-175): Rakhmonov has a 100% finish rate in his MMA career, and this should continue against the 40-year-old Thompson. Look for Rakhmonov to take Thompson to the canvas and submit him or unleash vicious ground and pound. This is a better wager than Rakhmonov’s moneyline.
- Paddy Pimblett by Submission (+240): Ferguson has one of the best chins in UFC history, so it’s unlikely Pimblett finishes him with punches. Ferguson’s last two losses came by submission, and nearly half of Pimblett’s career wins are by submission.
You’d have +800 odds if you put those three bets into a parlay on DraftKings.
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC