Bayern Munich and Real Madrid met in the UEFA Champions League semifinals on Tuesday in a wild 2-2 draw in the first leg. Both teams scored a penalty kick, Vinicius Junior scored twice and the two sides head to Spain for next week’s second leg level. Again, it was one of those matches where Real Madrid weren’t at their best but they were able to grind out a victory that puts them on the verge of another UCL final appearance.
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How Bayern got here
Bayern saw off Arsenal 3-2 on aggregate in the last eight having overcome Lazio 3-1 over two legs in the round of 16. Before that, the German dropped just two points in Group A to finish top of the pool which included Manchester United, Galatasaray and Copenhagen. The deposed Bundesliga kings are into their first Champions League semifinal since 2019-20 when they went all the way and beat fellow semifinalists Paris Saint-Germain in the final. PSG’s 3-2 win in Bavaria close to three years ago was the last time that Bayern suffered a reverse in front of their home support and Tuchel would love a return to London for the Wembley final before signing off with a second UCL triumph after his Chelsea feat.
How Real got here
Real came out on top of City in the quarterfinals on penalties after a 3-3 aggregate draw against the 2023 champions. Prior to that, Ancelotti’s men saw off RB Leipzig over two legs having topped Group C with a perfect tally of 18 points ahead of Napoli, Braga and Union Berlin. Andriy Lunin was the hero against Pep Guardiola’s side from the spot but the truth is that it has been an impressive campaign overall so far from Los Blancos without a single continental defeat to date. Real are unbeaten across 10 consecutive UCL games which is one away from equaling their 2016-17 record so even a draw against Bayern would maintain that record. Specific to these two meeting, the Spanish giants are unbeaten across six clashes with Bayern and eliminated them in 2013-14, 2016-17 and 2017-18 — all editions ultimately won by Real.
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Team news
Bayern: Alphonso Davies is back after his ban against Arsenal which required Noussair Mazraoui and Raphael Guerreiro to fill in admirably. Sacha Boey, Gabriel Marusic, Bouna Sarr and Tarek Buchmann are all out while Tuchel is not yet 100% certain to have Konrad Laimer or Matthijs de Ligt available. Jamal Musiala is also a doubt along with Leroy Sane, Serge Gnabry, Dayot Upamecano and Kingsley Coman but only the France international has been ruled out so far.
Potential Bayern XI: Neuer; Kimmich, Kim, Dier, Davies; Goretzka, Pavlovic; Muller, Musiala, Gnabry; Kane.
Real: Ancelotti should be boosted by Jude Bellingham’s return from illness while Rodrygo and Ferland Mendy should also be back which means Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba are the only major absentees. Lunin should continue in goal while Bellingham, Rodrygo and Mendy are likely to return to the starting XI. Dani Carvajal is suspended, though, which is likely to mean a start for Lucas Vazquez in Munich.
Potential Real XI: Lunin; Vazquez, Rudiger, Tchouameni, Mendy; Valverde, Camavinga, Kroos; Bellingham; Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior.
Prediction
This one promises to be tight with nothing sewn up after leg one and both sides have impressive records to protect. With so much on the line, a narrow Bayern win at home sounds plausible although a score draw should not be ruled out. That scenario could suit Real, though, who will fancy themselves to advance in Madrid in next week’s second leg. Pick: Bayern 1, Real 0.
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